Wisconsin Voters See State Supreme Court Race as Referendum on Trump

On the surface, Tuesday’s election in Wisconsin will determine whether conservatives or liberals gain control of the state’s Supreme Court, with significant implications for key policies such as abortion rights and congressional redistricting.

However, with an unprecedented influx of outside funding making this the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, many Wisconsin voters view this election as a broader referendum on the early months of President Trump’s second term.

A major factor driving this perception is the roughly $20 million investment from Elon Musk and his affiliated groups in support of the conservative candidate, Judge Brad Schimel, who recently secured an endorsement from President Trump. Meanwhile, his liberal opponent, Judge Susan Crawford, has criticized Musk’s involvement, arguing that his financial support is an attempt to install a loyalist on Wisconsin’s highest court.

The outcome of this race will shift the ideological composition of the seven-member court, currently controlled by a 4-3 liberal majority. Beyond shaping state policies, the results will also provide insight into how Wisconsin voters—residents of one of the nation’s most evenly split battleground states—perceive the Trump administration’s significant policy moves, including federal workforce reductions, a crackdown on illegal immigration, and efforts to curtail diversity initiatives in government and higher education. Trump secured Wisconsin by a razor-thin margin last November after narrowly losing the state in 2020.

“The political pendulum in the U.S. swings back and forth, and this election could indicate whether it is shifting again due to Trump’s actions in office,” said Michael Orwig, a 40-year-old federal employee and Schimel supporter from a Milwaukee suburb. “This is going to be the first major test.”

Musk’s involvement in the race has become one of its most controversial aspects. A super PAC funded by Musk has spent millions to increase conservative voter turnout and has even offered $100 incentives to those signing a petition against “activist judges,” a tactic that some critics question legally. Musk used a similar approach in last year’s presidential election to aid Trump’s campaign.

During a town hall event in Green Bay on Sunday, Musk further fueled controversy by awarding $1 million checks to two individuals who had already cast their votes. The Democratic state attorney general attempted to block these payments through legal action, but the Wisconsin Supreme Court declined to intervene.

Musk’s backing has energized conservatives while provoking strong opposition from liberals, particularly given that Tesla, his electric vehicle company, is currently challenging a Wisconsin law that prohibits direct-to-consumer car sales.

“I find it infuriating that Elon Musk is attempting to exert influence over our state by essentially buying it,” said Anwen Mullen, 47, a resident of River Falls in western Wisconsin and a supporter of Judge Crawford. She worries that a Schimel victory could lead to a statewide abortion ban and restrictions on transgender rights.

Tatiana Bobrowicz, a biomedical engineering student at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire and president of the College Republicans chapter, expressed no concern over Musk’s involvement. She pointed out that Wisconsin elections frequently attract out-of-state contributions from both sides. Bobrowicz hopes that electing Schimel to the state Supreme Court will pave the way for an abortion ban in Wisconsin and align the state more closely with Trump’s policies.

“We have momentum right now with everything happening at the federal level,” said Bobrowicz, 21. “This is a great time for our state to fall in step with those changes.”

Supporters of Judge Crawford see the election’s stakes differently.

Linda Vognar, 74, a veterinary acupuncturist from the Chippewa Valley region, has been alarmed by the recent flurry of executive orders and policy shifts from the Trump administration. She believes electing Crawford would serve as a necessary safeguard against what she perceives as an erosion of democratic norms and election integrity.

Emily Rose, 19, an environmental engineering student at the University of Wisconsin-River Falls, plans to vote for Crawford as a means of countering what she views as the Trump administration’s reckless favoritism toward the fossil fuel industry.

Tom Wilson, a 79-year-old retired housing energy consultant in Eau Claire, sees a Crawford victory as a reassurance for those concerned that Trump’s policies are undermining the constitutional foundations of American governance.

For many Schimel supporters, redistricting remains a top concern. Legislative boundaries have been frequently redrawn over the years, often granting a distinct advantage to one political party. The Wisconsin Supreme Court has been at the center of this issue, particularly after a contentious 2023 election shifted control to a 4-3 liberal majority.

In late 2023, the court mandated a redrawing of the state’s legislative districts, ruling that certain Republican-drawn maps were unconstitutional due to their lack of contiguous boundaries. Democrats have long argued that these maps gave Republicans an unfair advantage in a state with nearly even partisan divisions.

Orwig, the federal employee, cited this as his primary reason for supporting Schimel, despite his reservations about Trump’s aggressive downsizing of the federal workforce and what he perceives as weakening U.S. support for Ukraine.

“There are many dedicated public servants in government,” said Orwig, an Army veteran who has voted for Trump in the last three presidential elections. “Everyone in my office feels like they’re on edge right now.”

Thomas Mihajlov, a 78-year-old retired banking executive and former business professor in Eau Claire, is also backing Schimel. He believes liberals cannot be trusted to fairly manage legislative redistricting. More broadly, he is concerned that liberal judges have a tendency to impose policies from the bench rather than allowing them to go through the legislative process.

As the election approaches, many Wisconsin residents report feeling inundated with political advertisements, campaign volunteers, and an onslaught of mailers. The sheer scale of spending—coming from both Musk and other contributors—has left many in the state astonished.

Among the prominent donors supporting Crawford, billionaire George Soros has contributed $1 million to the Wisconsin Democratic Party, while Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has donated $500,000. These funds have been redirected to bolster Crawford’s campaign. Collectively, campaign spending and outside contributions have exceeded $81 million, according to data from the Brennan Center for Justice.

As of March 26, the Crawford campaign had spent over $22 million—more than doubling the $10.3 million spent directly by Schimel’s campaign. However, when factoring in external contributions, Schimel’s side holds a financial advantage of more than $10 million.

Denise Wendell, a 59-year-old gift shop owner in Lake Geneva, has grown accustomed to significant out-of-state financial influence in Wisconsin elections.

“I don’t like the fact that outside money is pouring in from both sides, but that’s just the way it is,” said Wendell, who is voting for Schimel largely due to Trump’s endorsement. “Everyone has their own agenda to push.”

Tammy Lamberg, a 58-year-old retired firefighter from Milwaukee, cast her early vote for Crawford on Friday. She finds the staggering sums raised in the race unsettling but not entirely surprising.

“I generally dislike the idea of outside money swaying elections, but I understand how important this race is—especially since Wisconsin is a swing state,” said Lamberg, who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris last year.

As she submitted her ballot, last November’s election loomed large in her mind.

“If you’re unhappy with the presidential election, this is your chance to send a message,” she said.