A Competitive Race for Mike Waltz’s Seat Rattles Republicans

Frank Curnow, a retired Navy veteran, approached the Republican volunteers at an early voting location in Daytona Beach, Florida, with a pressing concern on Thursday.

He wanted to understand why recent polling suggested a close race for the open congressional seat in his traditionally conservative district, Florida’s Sixth.

“That’s not good,” remarked Curnow, 77, a registered Republican who cast his vote for State Senator Randy Fine, the party’s candidate, because he believes Fine represents former President Trump’s values. “This race is crucial,” he added.

This district, encompassing the coastal region between St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, heavily backed Trump in past elections. However, on Tuesday, voters will participate in what has turned into a surprisingly competitive contest to fill the seat left vacant by former Representative Michael Waltz, who resigned to serve as Trump’s national security adviser.

Fine, running against Democrat Josh Weil, a public school employee, remains the frontrunner. However, with the Republican majority in the House hanging by a thread, voters in the district are increasingly aware of how this election—as well as the one for former Representative Matt Gaetz’s seat in the Florida Panhandle—could impact Trump’s policy agenda.

“It’s vital we keep these seats,” said Doreen Colby, 74, a Daytona Beach resident and registered Republican. “We need to ensure Trump can continue his work.”

After selecting Waltz and Gaetz for key roles in his administration, Trump wasted no time endorsing candidates to succeed them. (Although Gaetz ultimately withdrew from the attorney general race, he had already stepped down from Congress.)

While Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis, is expected to win Gaetz’s former seat with ease in an overwhelmingly conservative district, some Republicans have expressed concerns about the Sixth District.

Despite having nearly twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats, and with Trump having won the district by a two-to-one margin in the last presidential election, doubts about Fine’s prospects have emerged.

Stephen K. Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, voiced skepticism last week on his “War Room” podcast, stating, “We have a candidate I don’t believe is winning.”

To reinforce Fine’s standing, Trump hosted a telephone town hall on Thursday, emphasizing Fine’s unwavering support for his policies.

“This election is about protecting your agenda, and this district cannot afford to let you down,” Fine told Trump during the call.

Historically, the district has been a Republican stronghold, with former Senator Bill Nelson being the only Democrat to win a federal race there since 1989. Both Governor Ron DeSantis, who held the seat from 2013 to 2018, and Waltz, his successor, won with double-digit margins.

In discussions this week, many Republican voters in the district praised Trump’s first few months in office, lauding his strict immigration policies and significant reductions to the federal workforce.

For them, voting for Fine is a reaffirmation of their support for Trump’s leadership. “Politicians always talk about cutting government spending, but none of them actually do it. Trump is the first one who has followed through,” said Greg Bohr, 74, a retiree in Palm Coast. “I say, give the man a chance.”

For Democrats, however, the election is an opportunity to push back against Trump’s agenda.

“I need to take action,” said Marcia Hopkins, 63. Before heading to vote for Weil, she encouraged workers at her condominium’s construction site to cast their ballots, even offering them rides to the polling station—though none accepted her offer.

Weil’s campaign has focused on his opposition to Fine’s strong alignment with Trump. Paul Hunt, 61, a real estate professional in DeLand, dismissed Fine outright. “I don’t care what he’s done—his affiliation says everything I need to know.”

Weil, who has spent a decade as a public school teacher, has pledged to prioritize expanding access to healthcare and education if elected.

Additionally, he has vocally opposed reductions in the federal workforce and social programs. Nearly a third of the district’s residents qualify for Social Security, making this a key issue for many voters. Weil has worked to appeal to conservative voters as well, arguing that his leadership would prioritize serving constituents rather than party loyalty.

“People want someone who will truly represent them,” Weil stated during an interview at Stetson University in DeLand. “They don’t need another Republican clone marching in lockstep.”

By mid-March, Weil’s campaign had raised close to $10 million, dwarfing Fine’s fundraising total, which was under $1 million. In the final days of the race, Republican groups have invested heavily in Fine’s campaign, funneling over $1 million into television advertisements. Additionally, Elon Musk and his allies have contributed financial support.

Despite the influx of national attention and funding, political analysts from both parties caution against using this race as a definitive indicator of Trump’s overall electoral standing.

If Fine underperforms compared to past Republican candidates in the district, Governor DeSantis argued, it should be seen as a reflection of the candidate rather than a verdict on Trump himself. “That result wouldn’t be about President Trump—it would be about the specific individual running,” DeSantis told reporters on Tuesday. (Fine notably endorsed Trump over DeSantis in last year’s Republican primary.)

Interest in the race heightened further last week when The Atlantic’s editor revealed that Waltz had accidentally included him in a group chat on Signal, an encrypted messaging app, where sensitive military discussions about Houthi rebel attacks in Yemen took place. Waltz has since faced calls to step down over the incident, given the classified nature of the information.

However, there is little indication that this controversy will significantly impact the special election.

Many past Waltz supporters have dismissed the situation as an unfortunate, but unintentional, misstep. Others admitted they weren’t entirely sure what had happened.

“I don’t even know what Signal is,” said Michelle Moyer, 49, who helps run her family’s wholesale sleigh bell business in South Daytona and voted for Waltz in November. For her, the priority remains ensuring that Waltz’s successor aligns with his political stance.

“I like the direction the country is headed,” she said. “Fine supports the policies Trump is implementing.”

On Thursday, as early voting continued at the Daytona Beach polling site, Republican volunteers kept a close eye on turnout. A passing driver rolled down his window to share the news that Representative Elise Stefanik had decided to remain in Congress rather than accept Trump’s offer to serve as ambassador to the United Nations.

“Great news,” exclaimed Gisela Klobucar, one of the lead volunteers, clapping her hands.

“That’s one more person on our side,” she added with a smile.