Predicting the Oscar Nominations in a Wild and Wide-Open Season

Occasionally, when I ask Oscar voters which films and performances they’re considering for nominations, they flip the question back on me.https://svtoday.org/

“What about you—what would you like to see happen?” they’ll inquire.

Perhaps they think I’ll champion an overlooked gem or highlight a performance that hasn’t received enough recognition. But more often than not, my response is straightforward: I want to be surprised. Avoid the predictable choices. Take a risk on something unexpected, something no one would anticipate landing a nomination.

This sentiment holds particularly true for this year’s awards, where the race remains quite open. In recent years, the best picture winner and many of the acting categories were essentially decided months in advance. But this season feels refreshingly unpredictable. No single film has emerged as a dominant frontrunner, and several contenders still have a realistic shot at taking home the gold. That unpredictability makes things so much more exciting.

So, when the Oscar nominations are revealed on Thursday, I’m hopeful for a few curveballs. Even though predicting the results is part of my job, I’d genuinely enjoy being wrong this time around. Below, I’ve outlined my predictions for the top six Oscar categories, highlighting my choices in bold. These projections are based on industry buzz and the nominations from influential precursors like the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America, and Directors Guild of America.

Best Picture

Early in the awards season, the leading contenders for Best Picture seemed to come from what I referred to as the “A-B-C-D-E” tier, named after the first five letters of the alphabet. I still expect four of those films—“Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” and “Emilia Pérez”—to secure nominations, though “Dune: Part Two” has lost some ground due to its absence from the Directors Guild shortlist.

“Wicked” has proven to be a box-office triumph and a standout at the SAG Awards, making it a safe bet for a nomination. Similarly, “A Complete Unknown” has garnered major nominations across key guilds, showcasing strong industry support. Meanwhile, “The Substance,” a bold and unconventional contender, has benefited from Demi Moore’s impressive campaign and could earn a slot. Finally, smaller but beloved films like “A Real Pain” and “Sing Sing” are likely to round out the list, bolstered by standout performances that are also expected to receive recognition.

Best Director

Historically, this category overlaps with the Directors Guild nominations about 80% of the time. This year, I predict that Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), Sean Baker (“Anora”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”), and Edward Berger (“Conclave”) will all carry over to the Oscars.

The fifth spot is more uncertain. James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown”), despite a strong resume, has never received a Best Director Oscar nod. If he misses out again, the academy could lean toward an international filmmaker instead. Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”) is a strong contender, but others like Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine as Light”), RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”), and Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”) remain possibilities.

Best Actor

Four actors have consistently been recognized throughout this awards season: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), and Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”). These four are all but guaranteed nominations.

The fifth slot is a toss-up. Daniel Craig (“Queer”) is a strong contender, despite missing a BAFTA nomination. Other possibilities include Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”) and Hugh Grant (“Heretic”), but Craig’s strong performance and earlier nominations give him the edge.

Best Actress

Demi Moore has emerged as the frontrunner in this category for her performance in “The Substance” after her memorable Golden Globes speech. She’ll face stiff competition from Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), with Gascón potentially making history as the first openly trans actress nominated for an Oscar.

Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) is also a likely nominee, thanks to her powerful final scene in the film. The fifth spot is fiercely contested. Veteran actresses like Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Kate Winslet (“Lee”) have campaigned hard, but Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) may edge them out. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) has also gained momentum after her BAFTA win, making her my pick for the final nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”) are poised to receive nominations, continuing their winning streaks this season. Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) and Yura Borisov (“Anora”) are also strong contenders. For the final spot, Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) seems well-positioned, as his film has gained significant traction in recent weeks.

Best Supporting Actress

Two performers, Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”) and Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), seem like locks in this category, having secured nominations from SAG, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes.

For the remaining spots, Jamie Lee Curtis (“The Last Showgirl”), Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”), and Selena Gomez (“Emilia Pérez”) are strong contenders. Gomez, in particular, could benefit from Netflix’s strategic campaigning, positioning her alongside her co-stars Saldaña and Gascón for a trio of nominations.