Humbled in Syria, Putin Seeks Vindication in Ukraine

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has dealt a significant blow to his primary supporter, Russia, revealing the limitations of the Kremlin’s military power and global influence. However, for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, the loss of his closest Middle Eastern ally may only be a temporary setback in his broader geopolitical ambitions, with Ukraine remaining his main focus.https://wordpress.com/

Military and political analysts have pointed out that winning the war in Ukraine has become Putin’s paramount objective. They argue that such a victory would not only justify the immense human and economic costs of the conflict but also safeguard Russia’s sovereignty and global standing, compensating for setbacks like those in Syria.

As Aleksandr Baunov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, noted, Putin’s stakes in Ukraine are so high that a victory there could yield historic rewards for Russia. “If he believes the fate of the world is being decided in the Donbas, then the future of Syria will be decided there as well,” Baunov said.

In the short term, as Moscow seeks to maintain its military presence in Syria, Putin may escalate his offensive in Ukraine to recover some lost prestige. Pro-war Russian commentators have urged him to do so, calling for tougher peace conditions in Ukraine to avoid an inconclusive ceasefire like the one that ultimately led to Assad’s fall.

This could complicate the incoming U.S. administration’s promise to end the fighting in Ukraine swiftly. As Assad’s regime crumbled, President-elect Donald J. Trump criticized Russia for failing to save its ally and called on Putin to strike a deal on Ukraine, without offering specifics.

Trump also claimed that Russia was in a weakened state due to Ukraine and a struggling economy, saying, “This is his time to act,” referring to Putin.

Despite these external pressures, analysts have pointed out that one of the hallmarks of Putin’s 25-year rule has been his resistance to acting from a position of weakness. His vision for a Russian victory in Ukraine has remained vague, but by last year, the Russian military had shifted from trying to overthrow the Ukrainian state to focusing on the eastern regions, attempting to wear down Ukraine’s military and society to force Kyiv into negotiations.

Putin’s stated conditions for peace include keeping the territory Russia has already occupied and ensuring Ukraine’s military neutrality, meaning no NATO membership. Russia also seeks to diminish Ukraine’s military capabilities.

Putin recently emphasized that any peace talks should not result in a temporary ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to replenish its resources. The Ukrainian government has firmly rejected any peace conditions that would formalize territorial losses or prevent the country from seeking NATO membership.

The setback in Syria may make Moscow even less inclined to compromise. Russian pro-war commentators have reacted with anger and disbelief at Assad’s downfall, lamenting the loss of Russian soldiers who died in support of a Syrian army that ultimately collapsed. The demands of the war in Ukraine have hampered Russia’s ability to prevent this.

On Sunday, Zakhar Prilepin, a prominent Russian ultranationalist, referred to Syria as “our catastrophe,” and many of his colleagues have suggested that Russia should learn from Assad’s mistakes. Oleg Tsaryov, a former Ukrainian lawmaker now living in Russia, argued that frozen conflicts are a strategic mistake, as they offer adversaries an opportunity to exploit Russia’s weaknesses. He believes that to protect its interests, Russia must force Ukraine to accept a peace deal that includes the loss of territories annexed by Russia and guarantees Ukraine’s neutrality.

Some Russian commentators have even called for a more brutal approach in Ukraine to restore Russia’s strength after the embarrassment in Syria. Aleksei Pilko, a Russian historian, urged the military to show “extreme toughness, and even cruelty” in its approach, advocating for targeted killings of Ukrainian officials and more airstrikes against Ukrainian infrastructure.

While Putin’s supporters call for an escalation, there are few clear proposals on how a weakened Russian military could achieve these goals. However, the consensus is that more aggressive tactics are necessary.

Whether Putin will heed these calls remains uncertain. Vasily Kashin, a political scientist at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, dismissed the nationalistic fervor following Syria’s setback as “media noise.” He believes the Kremlin will stick to its strategic plan, unaffected by peripheral events that have little impact on the battlefield.

Despite his reputation as a master strategist, the loss in Syria could force Putin to demonstrate strength in Ukraine, according to political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya. “He may be tempted to show that Russia is not defeated and that it knows what it is doing,” she said, suggesting that this could lead Putin to harden his stance in peace negotiations.

To reassert his power, Putin might impose new conditions for peace talks or escalate airstrikes, as he has often threatened. According to U.S. officials, Russia may even launch a new missile strike on Ukraine in the near future.

Some Ukrainian analysts believe that Putin’s threats of escalation are bluffs, given that Russia is already fighting at full capacity after nearly four years of war. However, for many Russian analysts, the lesson from Syria’s civil war is clearer: prolonged conflicts are difficult to win. The Russian military’s attempts to corral Assad’s enemies into enclaves ultimately proved futile, and the same could happen in Ukraine.

“In a modern world, a victory is only possible in a fast and short war,” said Ruslan Pukhov, a prominent Russian military expert. “If you can’t secure your success in the military-political sphere, you will eventually lose, no matter what you do.”