The Campaign by Syrian Rebels to Topple Assad Was Swift

The Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, which had managed to fend off rebel forces for over a decade with substantial military assistance from Iran and Russia, fell unexpectedly quickly on Sunday morning after opposition forces launched a decisive advance on Damascus.

Mr. al-Assad, an authoritarian ruler notorious for using chemical weapons during the 13-year-long civil war, fled the country as opposition forces approached the capital. By Sunday evening, Russian state media and two Iranian officials reported that Mr. al-Assad had reached Russia, where he and his family had been granted political asylum. This claim could not be immediately verified by The New York Times, although both Iran and Russia had played key roles in sustaining his regime.https://wordpress.com/

The rebel offensive, which led to this collapse, lasted less than two weeks. Following negotiations with other parties in the conflict, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Mr. al-Assad had “decided to step down from the presidency and leave the country.” It also noted that he had issued instructions to ensure a peaceful transfer of power.

Mr. al-Assad himself did not comment on the situation, but his prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, remained in Damascus, expressing a willingness to cooperate with the rebels. The opposition swiftly took over Damascus with little resistance from Syrian military forces, capturing government buildings and state media offices.

The Syrian civil war, which erupted alongside the 2011 Arab Spring protests, had largely stagnated since 2017 despite earlier atrocities. However, a dramatic shift occurred in October 2023 after Hamas launched attacks on Israel, destabilizing the Middle East. This geopolitical upheaval weakened Mr. al-Assad’s allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Iran, embroiled in a war with Israel, saw its influence diminished, while Hezbollah faced devastating losses, including the deaths of key leaders. Simultaneously, Russia’s involvement in Ukraine strained its resources, leaving its military unable to provide substantial support to the Syrian regime.

The rebel coalition, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham—a group once affiliated with Al Qaeda but now operating as part of a broader alliance—began preparing for a large-scale offensive about a year ago. Analysts suggest Turkey provided covert support to the coalition, which established a military training academy in northern Syria, producing highly disciplined soldiers.

The offensive commenced on November 27, starting with the capture of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city. The rebels continued their rapid advance, seizing Hama, a city previously untouched by opposition forces, and then Homs, a crucial strategic location. Rebel forces from southern Syria ultimately became the first to enter Damascus, meeting little resistance as the government’s weakened military crumbled.

Years of corruption, lack of morale, and insufficient resources had left Syrian forces ill-prepared. Even elite units, such as the Fourth Armored Division and the Republican Guard, failed to mount a significant defense. Without strong support from Hezbollah, Iranian forces, or Russian airstrikes, the regime collapsed.

The swift fall of Damascus marks a significant blow to President Vladimir Putin’s Middle East strategy, which had centered on supporting Mr. al-Assad. The Kremlin’s frustration with Mr. al-Assad’s refusal to engage in meaningful negotiations was evident, but his sudden ousting is considered a significant humiliation for Russia.

The United States, which had maintained a cautious approach to the Syrian conflict, faces uncertainty about its role moving forward. Despite deploying around 900 troops in northeastern Syria to support Kurdish forces against ISIS, the U.S. has avoided deeper involvement, wary of unintended consequences. President-elect Donald Trump has reiterated his stance against U.S. intervention in Syria, calling it a “wasteful endeavor.”

The future of Syria remains uncertain. The coalition that ousted Mr. al-Assad is diverse and fragmented, raising questions about the nature of the new government. Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert S. Ford emphasized the importance of Washington defining its objectives in Syria, as various global and regional actors recalibrate their positions.

For many Syrians, Mr. al-Assad’s fall has brought hope and relief. Residents of rebel-controlled areas celebrated the end of airstrikes, while those in Damascus cautiously welcomed the change. Walaa Salameh, a mother of two, expressed optimism for the future despite the uncertainty, saying, “Hopefully, what is coming is better.”