The Misleading Claim

On election night, vote counts sometimes seem to spike abruptly, often favoring one candidate. This has led some social media users to incorrectly suggest that these surges are evidence of fraudulent votes.

Why the Claim is Misleading

Such sudden increases in vote counts are a typical aspect of election night reporting.

Real-time election updates, like those from The New York Times, rely on unofficial data gathered from local precincts, counties, or states by media outlets or data services. These updates may be delayed, as they depend on when and how quickly votes are processed and reported. Occasionally, election officials will release a substantial number of votes at once, such as a batch of early or mail-in ballots.

Each state and county has its own procedure for counting votes. In some areas, early and mail-in ballots are tallied first, while in others, these ballots are counted later. Since mail-in voting has historically been more popular with Democratic voters, the reporting of these votes can influence the leading candidate at various points, creating a temporary vote spike for one candidate. For example, during the 2020 election, votes for Democratic candidate Joseph R. Biden Jr. were tallied overnight, resulting in a surge as many Trump supporters were no longer following the results live.

These shifts in vote totals are a normal feature of elections and can favor any candidate, depending on how the votes are counted and reported.

How the Misleading Claim Was Used

A prominent claim from the 2020 election showed Mr. Biden pulling ahead of then-President Donald J. Trump in Wisconsin. A graph, initially created by the elections data website FiveThirtyEight using accurate data, was circulated as supposed proof of voter fraud.

The chart simply illustrated a peculiarity in data reporting. At approximately 4 a.m. the day after the election, Milwaukee, a Democratic stronghold, reported over 170,000 absentee votes. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump gained votes from this batch, but Mr. Biden’s increase was significantly larger.