For decades, Iran and Israel have been engaged in a covert conflict. However, this year, their hostilities have become more apparent.

Israel’s military is currently gearing up for a potential strike against Iran, a response to Iran’s launch of approximately 180 ballistic missiles aimed at Israel on October 1.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has stated that any counterattack will be “deadly, precise, and, above all, surprising.”

Should this strike occur, it could escalate the regional tensions that flared after a deadly assault on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on October 7 of the previous year.

Here’s what we know about the possible Israeli military action against Iran and the events leading to this moment.

When Will the Strikes Happen?

The timeline remains uncertain.

During a previous exchange of airstrikes in April, Israel responded to an Iranian attack within five days.

However, several factors may influence a longer wait this time, including discussions with the Biden administration, the deployment of a U.S. air defense system, and the Jewish holidays. The upcoming U.S. elections could also affect Israel’s timing.

Recently leaked U.S. intelligence documents provide insight into Israel’s military preparations for a potential strike against Iran, highlighting concerns within the U.S. One document outlined exercises resembling a strike rehearsal, while another noted Israel’s repositioning of missiles and weapons in anticipation of a possible Iranian counterattack. (The FBI is currently investigating the leak.)

What Are the Potential Targets for Israel?

Analysts suggest there are various categories of targets. Israel aims to diminish Iran’s proxy forces, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, while also addressing its allies’ concerns—particularly those of the United States—about the risk of igniting a broader regional conflict.

The Israeli government has reportedly informed the Biden administration that it will refrain from targeting Iran’s nuclear enrichment and oil production facilities. Instead, officials indicated that Israel intends to focus on military targets within Iran.

By avoiding strikes on nuclear and oil infrastructure, Israel aims to minimize the risk of an all-out war, especially as Washington is wary of being drawn into a larger Middle Eastern conflict with the presidential election approaching.

What Are Israel’s Military Capabilities?

If Israel opts to retaliate using its formidable air force, its aircraft will need to cover considerable distances. Recent operations have demonstrated its capability to do so.

In late September, Israeli forces launched strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, flying over a thousand miles to hit power plants and shipping facilities, utilizing reconnaissance planes and numerous fighter jets that required midair refueling. A strike on Iran would necessitate a similar range.

While Iran possesses stronger air defenses compared to Lebanon and Yemen, Israel may have an advantage.

In April, following an initial missile barrage from Iran, an Israeli airstrike successfully damaged an S-300 anti-aircraft system near Natanz, a key site for Iran’s nuclear program. Reports from Western and Iranian officials indicated that Israel employed drones and missiles in that operation.

This attack illustrated Israel’s ability to penetrate Iran’s defenses and disrupt them effectively.

“I believe they will likely replicate the April operation, targeting Iran’s early warning systems and air defenses to facilitate an air assault,” said Grant Rumley, a former Pentagon official and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The critical question will be the extent of the operation and whether they will enter Iranian airspace.”

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, notes that Israel also has additional options, such as Jericho 2 medium-range ballistic missiles, capable of traveling about 2,000 miles, and Jericho 3 intermediate-range ballistic missiles that can reach targets over 4,000 miles away.

What Is the U.S. Government’s Position?

President Biden recently stated he would not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

When asked about the timing and nature of Israel’s potential strikes, Biden affirmed his awareness but provided no specifics, suggesting a possible alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the matter. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met extensively with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Some analysts contend that the approaching U.S. presidential election complicates the ability of the United States to influence or constrain any potential Israeli actions. They argue that Biden’s decision not to pursue a second term may further weaken his leverage in this context.

How Did Israel and Iran Reach This Point?

For many years, Iran and Israel have engaged in what could be described as a covert war. Iran has utilized proxy forces, including Hamas and Hezbollah, to target Israeli interests, while Israel has conducted assassinations of high-ranking Iranian officials and nuclear scientists, along with cyberattacks. This year, the conflict has become more overt.

In April, Iran directly attacked Israel with a series of missiles and drones for the first time, retaliating for an Israeli strike on a Syrian embassy compound that resulted in the deaths of three prominent Iranian commanders. Israel primarily thwarted the missile attacks with its air defense systems, aided by the U.S. and other allies, and subsequently launched its own counterattack.

In late July, Israeli jets eliminated a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut as retaliation for a rocket strike that killed at least 12 people. Shortly after, Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, was killed in an explosion in Tehran.

Despite promises of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah, Iran surprisingly refrained from immediate action.

When Iran fired its missile barrage on October 1, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps stated it was avenging Haniyeh’s assassination, as well as the recent killings of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and an Iranian commander.

Following Nasrallah’s death, Israel launched an incursion into southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, which is Iran’s most significant proxy.