College football’s Week 10 projections were updated Thursday, November 5, with statistical models forecasting the outcomes of every FBS-versus-FBS matchup and identifying several potentially decisive games in the 2026 College Football Playoff race. The schedule is highlighted by No. 1 Miami visiting No. 11 Notre Dame, No. 2 Georgia traveling to No. 10 Ole Miss and No. 9 BYU facing undefeated No. 3 Utah.

According to College Football Charts, its Week 10 forecasting board covers 62 FBS-versus-FBS games, including five completed contests from Tuesday and Wednesday. The remaining schedule runs through Saturday, November 7. The projections combine offensive, defensive and special-teams performance ratings with a home-field adjustment. Additional rating systems provide comparisons that help assess the strength of individual forecasts.

The projections arrive at an important moment in the season. The College Football Playoff selection committee released its initial rankings Tuesday, placing Miami, Georgia, Utah and Indiana in the top four positions. Alabama, Kentucky, Texas, UCLA, BYU and Ole Miss completed the top 10. Seven games involving two ranked opponents are scheduled for Saturday, giving the committee substantial new evidence before its next rankings announcement on November 10.

One of the most closely watched predictions concerns Miami’s visit to Notre Dame. College Football Charts projects a 32-29 victory for the Fighting Irish, assigning Notre Dame approximately a 62% chance of winning. Miami enters the matchup undefeated at 8-0, while Notre Dame is 7-1. A Hurricanes victory would strengthen their position atop the rankings, while a Notre Dame win could significantly improve the Irish’s playoff outlook.

The forecast is particularly notable because it favors the lower-ranked home team. Notre Dame entered the first committee rankings at No. 11, making the matchup unusually important for a program seeking to establish a stronger postseason résumé. The projected three-point margin suggests a competitive game rather than a decisive advantage for either side.

Georgia’s road meeting with Ole Miss presents another significant test. The model favors the Bulldogs 36-26, with an estimated 65% winning probability. Georgia enters at 7-1 and No. 2 in the committee rankings, while Ole Miss is 6-2 and ranked 10th. The forecast suggests Georgia could generate enough offensive production to overcome the challenge of playing away from home.

The rivalry between BYU and Utah also carries major playoff implications. Utah is projected to win 29-25, extending its undefeated season if that result holds. The Utes entered the week at 8-0, while BYU stood at 7-1. A four-point projected difference highlights the uncertainty surrounding a matchup that could shape the Big 12 championship race.

Across the leading games, College Football Charts provides the following projected final scores:

• Miami at Notre Dame: Notre Dame 32, Miami 29.
• Georgia at Ole Miss: Georgia 36, Ole Miss 26.
• BYU at Utah: Utah 29, BYU 25.
• Alabama at LSU: LSU 30, Alabama 24.
• Kentucky at Tennessee: Tennessee 33, Kentucky 23.
• Texas at Missouri: Texas 24, Missouri 21.
• Oregon at Ohio State: Ohio State 31, Oregon 17.
• UCLA at Minnesota: UCLA 24, Minnesota 16.
• Cincinnati at Houston: Houston 39, Cincinnati 30.
• Michigan State at Michigan: Michigan 26, Michigan State 9.
• Oklahoma at Florida: Florida 24, Oklahoma 21.
• TCU at Arizona: Arizona 27, TCU 17.
• Nebraska at Illinois: Nebraska 30, Illinois 24.
• Virginia Tech at SMU: SMU 31, Virginia Tech 25.
• West Virginia at Texas Tech: Texas Tech 45, West Virginia 24.
• Boise State at Colorado State: Boise State 44, Colorado State 28.

The Southeastern Conference accounts for several of the most consequential projections. LSU is favored to beat Alabama despite the Crimson Tide entering the week ranked fifth nationally. Tennessee is also projected to defeat Kentucky, which holds the No. 6 position. Those outcomes would complicate the conference standings while strengthening the postseason arguments of teams seeking victories over highly ranked opponents.

Independent projections illustrate how different forecasting approaches can produce different expectations. CBS Sports reported Thursday that the SportsLine model, which simulates FBS games 10,000 times, projects Tennessee to beat Kentucky 27-19. Although the forecast differs from College Football Charts’ 33-23 prediction, both systems favor Tennessee. SportsLine also identified the Volunteers as having a favorable probability of covering the point spread.

In the Big Ten, Ohio State is projected to defeat Oregon despite the Buckeyes entering the game outside the initial playoff field when automatic qualification is considered. UCLA is also favored to remain undefeated with a road victory over Minnesota. The Bruins entered the committee rankings at No. 8, making continued success especially important as the regular season approaches its final weeks.

Thursday’s schedule includes UTSA at Florida Atlantic and James Madison at Southern Miss. College Football Charts projects UTSA to win 38-34 in a comparatively high-scoring contest, while James Madison is favored 41-17. The latter projection represents a substantially wider margin, reflecting the model’s assessment of the teams’ relative strengths.

Friday’s games provide additional opportunities for movement across conference standings. SMU is projected to defeat Virginia Tech 31-25, Nebraska is favored over Illinois 30-24, New Mexico is projected to beat Nevada 24-14, and Arizona is favored over TCU 27-17. South Florida at East Carolina is another closely contested matchup, with College Football Charts forecasting a 26-22 South Florida victory.

Not every prediction should be interpreted as equally reliable. Games with projected margins of one possession are more vulnerable to individual turnovers, special-teams plays and late-game decisions than matchups featuring substantial statistical advantages. A model’s projected score represents an expected outcome under its assumptions, not a guarantee that a game will follow that scoring pattern.

The first completed Week 10 games have already illustrated those limitations. Ohio defeated Akron 28-20 on Tuesday, and Buffalo beat Miami (Ohio) 34-31 in overtime. Wednesday’s results included Massachusetts defeating Ball State 31-30 in overtime, Toledo beating Sacramento State 20-17 and Central Michigan defeating Eastern Michigan 35-7. These outcomes provide an early opportunity to compare forecasts with actual results.

Toledo’s narrow victory is particularly instructive. College Football Charts had projected Toledo to win 40-11, but the actual margin was only three points. The model correctly identified the winner while substantially overestimating the scoring difference. Buffalo also defeated Miami (Ohio), reversing the model’s preferred outcome. Such results demonstrate the distinction between predicting winners and accurately forecasting margins.

For viewers following the complete Week 10 schedule, the NCAA lists games across ESPN, ABC, FOX, CBS, NBC and other television and streaming outlets. Kickoff assignments vary by conference and may be updated. The most prominent Saturday contests include BYU-Utah at noon Eastern, Alabama-LSU at 3:30 p.m., Kentucky-Tennessee at 6:15 p.m., and both Miami-Notre Dame and Georgia-Ole Miss at 7:30 p.m.

The significance of the weekend extends beyond individual score predictions. With the playoff committee evaluating strength of schedule, head-to-head results and overall team performance, victories against ranked opponents could materially influence the next set of rankings. Conversely, unexpected defeats may force teams to rely more heavily on remaining conference games and other results.

The committee’s next rankings are scheduled for Tuesday, November 10. Until then, the Week 10 forecasts provide a numerical reference for understanding which outcomes appear more likely and where potential surprises could emerge. The actual results will determine whether the leading contenders strengthen their positions or whether another unpredictable weekend reshapes college football’s postseason race.