A widely circulated headline stating that U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 1.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter reflects an economic report released months ago, not a fresh September reading. The Bureau of Economic Analysis first estimated on February 20 that real GDP rose 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, but the agency later revised that growth rate down twice, ultimately putting the quarter’s expansion at 0.5%.

The distinction is important as investors and businesses assess the economy heading into the final months of 2026. BEA’s latest national GDP estimate, released August 26, shows real output growing at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2026. First-quarter growth was 2.1%. The government is scheduled to release its third estimate for second-quarter GDP on September 30, along with updated corporate-profit and state economic figures.

When the fourth-quarter 2025 advance estimate arrived in February, it nevertheless represented a striking loss of momentum. The economy had expanded at a 4.4% annual rate in the third quarter. The initial 1.4% reading therefore suggested that growth had slowed dramatically during the final three months of the year. It also fell short of private forecasts: Reuters said economists in its survey had expected a 3.0% annualized increase, while a separate MarketWatch report cited a 2.5% expectation.

BEA initially attributed the fourth-quarter increase primarily to consumer spending and investment. Those gains were partly offset by declines in government spending and exports. Imports also fell, which mathematically adds to GDP because imports are subtracted when the national accounts are calculated. Compared with the third quarter, however, consumer spending decelerated and government spending and exports turned downward.

A major complication was the October-November 2025 federal government shutdown. In the advance estimate, BEA calculated that reduced services provided by federal employees subtracted about one percentage point from fourth-quarter real GDP growth. Some federal workers were furloughed, reducing the measured volume of government services even though workers later received back pay. The shutdown also delayed several government statistical releases and forced BEA to adjust its normal GDP publication schedule.

The 1.4% number was always labeled an advance estimate, meaning it was based on incomplete source information. That is standard for U.S. GDP reporting. BEA releases an early estimate soon after a quarter ends and then incorporates additional information in subsequent updates. Those revisions can materially change the picture when late-arriving data on trade, inventories, spending and investment differ from the assumptions used in the first calculation.

That is exactly what happened with the fourth quarter. On March 13, BEA cut the annualized growth estimate to 0.7%. The agency said the revision reflected weaker readings for exports, consumer spending, government spending and investment than previously estimated, while imports declined less than first calculated.

The revision continued in April. BEA’s third estimate put fourth-quarter growth at just 0.5%, one-third of the initial 1.4% figure. Investment was the main source of the latest downward revision. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers — a measure combining consumer spending and private fixed investment that economists often watch for underlying domestic demand — increased 1.8%, compared with the 2.4% rate estimated in February.

The industry data reinforced the picture of an uneven economy. Private services-producing industries increased their real value added by 2.3% in the fourth quarter, while private goods-producing industries declined 1.8% and government fell 7.8%. Wholesale trade, information, and health care and social assistance were among the largest positive industry contributors.

For 2025 as a whole, BEA’s finalized estimate showed real GDP increasing 2.1%, compared with 2.8% growth in 2024. Consumer spending and investment were the principal contributors to the full-year expansion. That annual result was also slightly weaker than the 2.2% growth initially reported with the February advance estimate.

The economy has since moved beyond the fourth-quarter period covered by the original 1.4% headline. First-quarter 2026 GDP increased 2.1%, and BEA’s August second estimate showed second-quarter growth at 1.5%. In the second quarter, consumer spending, exports and investment contributed positively, while government spending declined. BEA also said real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 4.2%, suggesting private domestic demand was stronger than the headline GDP rate alone indicated.

For markets, the episode illustrates why an advance GDP estimate should not be treated as a permanent reading. The surprise associated with the February report was significant at the time: even the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model had estimated 3.0% fourth-quarter growth immediately before the government report, making the initial 1.4% result 1.6 percentage points below its final nowcast.

As of September 14, however, there has been no new BEA GDP release supporting a fresh 1.4% fourth-quarter growth story within the past 36 hours. The current official record shows 0.5% growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.5% growth for the second quarter of 2026. Investors looking for the next update will have to wait until September 30, when BEA is scheduled to publish its third estimate of second-quarter GDP and broader revisions to the national economic accounts.