Tariffs on Brazil Could Leave Coffee Drinkers With a Headache

Your morning cup of coffee could soon cost more — and not just at your favorite café. Brewing coffee at home may also become pricier if a proposed import tariff goes into effect.

Starting next month, former President Donald Trump plans to introduce a 50 percent tariff on all goods imported from Brazil. This policy, if implemented, would significantly affect the price of coffee in the United States. Whether it’s served in restaurants, coffee shops, or prepared at home, coffee prices are likely to rise in response.

This move comes at an already challenging time for the global coffee industry. Coffee prices have surged in 2025 due to poor harvests caused by prolonged droughts in Brazil and Vietnam — two of the world’s largest coffee producers. With supply already constrained and prices rising, the introduction of a high import tax could further squeeze the market.

American consumers are already feeling the impact at the checkout counter. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price for a pound of ground roast coffee had increased to $7.93 at the end of May, a significant jump from $5.99 at the same time last year.

Mr. Trump’s motivation for the tariff appears to be politically charged. The decision is seen as retaliation against the Brazilian government for prosecuting his ally, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently on trial for attempting to overturn democratic rule.

The consequences of the tariff could be far-reaching, as the U.S. imports over 99 percent of its coffee from regions such as South America, Africa, and Asia. Data from the Department of Agriculture shows that the U.S. imported approximately 1.6 million metric tons of coffee — both roasted and green — last year alone.

Brazil was a major contributor, supplying over 8.1 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee to the United States in the same period. Any disruption in this supply chain could have ripple effects around the world. Guilherme Morya, a coffee expert at Rabobank in São Paulo, called the scenario a “lose-lose situation.”

Brazilian exporters are currently taking a wait-and-see approach, hoping negotiations may avert the need to find new buyers in other regions. But if the tariffs go into effect, the international coffee market could be forced to restructure. “We’ll witness a major reconfiguration in global coffee flows,” Morya said. “Especially concerning Brazil’s exports.”

If importers and large-scale buyers such as grocery chains and coffeehouse franchises are forced to absorb a 50 percent increase in wholesale prices, the cost to the average consumer could also climb significantly. Ryan Cummings, chief of staff at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, estimates that within three months of the tariff’s introduction, consumers might be paying an additional 25 cents per cup.

While multinational coffee chains like Starbucks are often shielded from sudden price hikes — thanks to long-term purchasing contracts with global suppliers — they are not immune. Analysts warn that as companies scramble to adapt, some may seek alternative sources of coffee to bypass tariffs, further unsettling the market.

“This game of tariff whack-a-mole creates a lot of instability for coffee producers,” Cummings remarked.

However, shifting to other coffee-producing countries is not a simple solution. Vietnam, for example, is another key exporter, but its coffee yields are lower than Brazil’s and are currently in decline due to similar climate-related issues. Additionally, much of Vietnam’s coffee is the cheaper robusta variety, which is generally more bitter and lower in quality compared to Brazil’s premium arabica beans.

David Gantz, a policy economist at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, added that it would be difficult for any other country to match Brazil’s production levels in the short or medium term. “Vietnam is not equipped to handle the overflow. Supply would fall short,” Gantz said. As a result, Brazilian exports might diminish or cease entirely in some categories, while the remaining shipments would arrive at a steeper price.

Another factor limiting U.S. resilience in the face of potential shortages is geography. Coffee grows best in tropical climates with high rainfall and at higher altitudes. Within U.S. borders, only Hawaii and Puerto Rico provide suitable conditions for coffee cultivation.

Last year, the United States produced just over 11,000 metric tons of coffee — a fraction of what is consumed — and nearly all of it came from Hawaii. But Hawaiian coffee is marketed as a specialty product and commands a premium price — often double or triple the cost of even high-end imports. Moreover, the high cost of labor, water, and energy in Hawaii limits its ability to scale up production.

“We simply can’t grow enough coffee domestically,” said Shawn Steiman, owner of Coffea Consulting in Honolulu. “Hawaii’s coffee industry doesn’t operate on the same scale as the global market.”

As a result, many Americans may simply accept higher prices, particularly those who consider coffee an essential part of their daily routine. Others may downgrade to cheaper products or seek alternative sources of caffeine, such as tea or energy drinks.

Coffee drinkers do notice when prices rise. For example, Starbucks recently implemented a flat surcharge of 80 cents for any beverage with flavored syrup, prompting frustration among customers. Although the company framed the decision as a pricing standardization measure, some customers were unhappy.

Brandon Taylor, a video producer based in Orlando, Florida, was surprised when the price of his usual iced coffee with caramel syrup jumped to $5.35. “That 80-cent charge really pushed it over the edge,” he said. He ended up canceling his order and doesn’t plan on returning anytime soon.

Coffee may not be the only breakfast staple impacted by Trump’s proposed tariffs. Brazil is also a leading supplier of orange juice to the U.S., providing roughly 90 percent of its fresh orange juice imports and 55 percent of its frozen concentrate, according to USDA statistics.

Much of the orange juice consumed in the U.S. also comes from Brazil’s exports of concentrated orange pulp. Meanwhile, Florida — the largest domestic orange-producing state — has seen declining output in recent years due to a citrus disease, limiting its ability to fill any supply gaps.

“There would be major consequences for orange juice lovers,” said Gantz. “Florida just can’t compensate for a sudden drop in imports from Brazil.”

In summary, while the proposed tariffs are politically motivated, their economic impact could hit everyday Americans hard — especially those who rely on coffee and orange juice as part of their daily routine. As the global supply chain braces for disruption, both prices and consumer choices may shift in the coming months.