Immigration Raids Add to Absence Crisis for Schools

As former President Donald Trump announced plans for widespread deportations, educators across the country raised urgent concerns. They feared such actions would deter families from sending their children to school, potentially impacting not just immigrant students, but their nonimmigrant peers as well.

Now, newly released research appears to confirm these fears. A study conducted by Stanford University reveals a clear connection between immigration raids and drops in school attendance. Specifically, in California’s Central Valley, parents were significantly more likely to keep their children at home during and after immigration sweeps that occurred earlier this year.

The research, led by Thomas S. Dee, a professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Education, shows that the repercussions of these raids go beyond the immediate targets. Even though the enforcement operations did not take place directly on school grounds, their effects reverberated throughout local communities. Dee’s study found a sharp 22% increase in student absences around the times the raids were carried out.

This past week, the federal government deployed military forces to Los Angeles to quell protests against deportations. Despite reassurances from school districts that campuses remained safe for all students, attendance still declined.

The study analyzed data from five public school districts in the southern Central Valley region, which collectively serve over 100,000 students. While public schools do not collect data on immigration status, the demographics of the region—predominantly Latino students, many from farmworker families with uncertain legal standing—suggest a community highly vulnerable to immigration enforcement efforts. These farmworkers are essential to the U.S. food supply, helping to produce nearly 25% of the nation’s fruits, vegetables, grains, and nuts.

Dee examined attendance records spanning a three-year period. He identified a notable and atypical surge in student absences in January and February, following a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) campaign known as “Operation Return to Sender.” This operation, conducted by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, targeted undocumented individuals in public spaces such as parking lots, gas stations, and even outside a Home Depot store, leading to the arrest of many day laborers and agricultural workers.

Although the operation occurred during the final phase of President Joe Biden’s administration, many interpreted it as a signal of alignment with Donald Trump’s hardline immigration stance. Since then, immigration raids in California and nationwide have been less frequent but continue to receive wide media coverage and stir significant public anxiety.

Just recently, federal immigration officials announced a pause in enforcement actions targeting agricultural workers after President Trump acknowledged that the raids were negatively affecting the farming sector.

In the Central Valley, the psychological impact of these raids has been deeply felt by immigrant families. Many parents expressed fear of being apprehended while their children were at school, raising the terrifying possibility of being deported without them. To avoid such outcomes, some families chose to keep their children at home.

The increase in absenteeism translated to an average of 15 missed school days per student per year—up from a typical 12 days—according to Dee’s findings. He described the data as a “canary in the coal mine,” warning that if absentee rates remain high, student academic performance and emotional well-being could suffer significantly.

There are also financial implications. In California, public school funding is closely tied to daily student attendance, meaning schools could lose crucial resources. Educators report having to modify lesson plans to accommodate students who have fallen behind. Counselors and social workers, meanwhile, are spending more time tracking absent students and addressing the mental health issues stemming from deportation fears.

Dee’s work aligns with previous studies that documented a decline in school attendance linked to immigration raids under various presidential administrations, including those of Trump, Biden, and Obama.

According to many immigrants living in the Central Valley, the threat of deportation has long been a looming concern. However, the anxiety has never been as intense as it is now. Trump’s aggressive policies and inflammatory rhetoric, compounded by widespread stories of family separations and children being placed into foster care, often circulated through social media, have only heightened the sense of dread.

A Mexican father living in Fresno, who has two children aged 14 and 6, described the possibility of being deported with his family as a devastating loss. He and his wife, a farmworker, had worked hard to build a stable life in California. Still, he said the thought of being deported without his children was unbearable. Like many others in his position, he requested anonymity due to his immigration status. While he limited nonessential outings, he continued to send his children to school—something not all parents were willing to risk.

Another parent, a mother from Mexico also living in Fresno, was so frightened that she paid someone else to drive her daughter to school rather than leave the safety of her home. Eventually, she resumed the school runs herself and quickly noticed that the number of children at drop-off had declined. Several families she once saw every morning were no longer present.

In response to the Stanford findings, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson issued a statement saying, “Illegal immigration is incredibly disruptive to all Americans, including families, students, and teachers. The Trump administration will not apologize for upholding the law and ensuring order in our communities.”

The decline in attendance comes at a particularly sensitive time. School systems are still grappling with a crisis of chronic absenteeism triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. In Fresno Unified—the largest district in the region—Superintendent Misty Her has been making weekly home visits to reconnect with families whose children have stopped attending school.

Her stated goal is to understand, not to shame. She noted that in previous years, it was common for seasonal agricultural workers to leave their children in the care of relatives while they traveled for harvest work, allowing the children to maintain school attendance. Now, parents are increasingly taking their children with them, fearing forced separation.

To support these families, the district offers an alternative: its virtual academy. “We provide laptops and internet hotspots so students can continue learning from home,” Her explained, adding that this option proved effective for some families during pandemic-related school closures.

Professor Dee’s research also highlights that younger students, in particular, are more likely to be kept at home. This trend suggests that undocumented parents may be especially protective of their youngest and most vulnerable children.

Before the raids in January, school attendance across the Central Valley had been showing signs of improvement. But the resurgence of immigration enforcement brought about a kind of social retreat, reminiscent of pandemic lockdowns.

Jacob Kirksey, an education professor at Texas Tech University, noted that immigration raids can lead to a fundamentally different school experience for affected children, similar to the disruptions caused by COVID-19. However, he cautioned against leaning too heavily on virtual education as a response to fear-based absenteeism. “Kids learn best in person,” he said, warning that promoting online learning as a solution could further undermine the expectation that students attend school regularly.

Kirksey praised the methodological rigor of Dee’s study and suggested that it could serve as a basis for future policy reforms. Since immigration enforcement falls outside the purview of school districts, he proposed that states reevaluate the link between attendance and school funding. He also recommended treating immigration raids like natural disasters, which typically trigger emergency funding and support services.

Tragically, some children who stopped attending school may never return. Their families may have chosen to leave the United States voluntarily, a possible outcome aligned with Trump’s stated immigration objectives.

Nereida Galvez, who works with Indigenous Mexican immigrant families through a Fresno-based nonprofit, shared the story of one such family. They decided to leave the country together out of fear that their children might be left behind if the parents were arrested. “They just couldn’t take that chance,” she said. “They chose to keep the family together, even if that meant leaving their entire life in the U.S. behind.”