‘Absolutely insane’: Roki Sasaki chase has clubs rethinking prospect deals, seeking trades

The countdown to resolving the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes has international baseball scouts and executives bracing for an unusual flurry of activity.https://wordpress.com/

“It could get chaotic,” one seasoned international evaluator commented earlier this week.

Sasaki, a highly coveted 23-year-old pitcher from Japan, has disrupted the international baseball market. Due to MLB rules, teams can only sign Sasaki using their international bonus pools, which range from approximately $5.1 million to $7.5 million. The MLB international signing period opens annually on Jan. 15. Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, anticipates finalizing a deal for his client sometime between this date and Jan. 23, when his negotiation window closes.

Teams like the Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Giants, and Rangers have reportedly held in-person meetings with Sasaki, with the Toronto Blue Jays joining the mix last week. However, Sasaki’s decision will ripple through the entire international market.

The anticipation is prompting teams to take unorthodox approaches ahead of signing day, such as delaying commitments to other prospects, backing out of agreements, or even exploring trades for additional international cash.

For example, the Padres informed some prospects they were free to pursue other deals, sources say. The Dodgers advised certain players to consider deferring their signings to the next cycle if Sasaki signs with them and they’re unable to trade for enough bonus pool funds to honor their prior agreements. Sources indicate the Padres have had similar discussions, suggesting some players wait until 2026. This reshuffling hasn’t stopped other developments. Dominican shortstop Darell Morel, initially set to sign with the Dodgers in 2025, switched to the Pirates for $1.8 million—double the amount Los Angeles had offered.

Other clubs may be taking similar measures, or they could start soon.

“It’s absolute madness trying to determine who’s genuinely available,” an international executive shared. “Deals are in limbo, and agents are leveraging the situation to secure better terms. Meanwhile, conversations around trading international money are intensifying.”

Although international players can’t officially sign until they’re eligible, verbal agreements—often with teenagers—are common years in advance, especially in Latin America. These agreements, though unofficial, shape the market, leaving many teams with less flexibility than their allocated bonus pools suggest.

Teams vying for Sasaki are betting on his ability to immediately contribute as a top-tier starter, making his signing a unique and highly prized opportunity.

Sasaki, recently posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball, could have waited until he turned 25 to bypass bonus pool restrictions and secure a larger deal. Instead, he opted for a faster path to MLB, unlike Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who waited and landed a $325 million contract.

For over a year, teams like the Dodgers have adjusted their strategies, pulling out of prior agreements to conserve resources in case Sasaki became available. As a result, the Dodgers enter the 2024 signing period with an unusually large amount of unused bonus money.

In contrast, the Padres, known for securing top international talent like Leodalis De Vries in 2024, limited their commitments this cycle, anticipating Sasaki’s market impact.

The Padres and Dodgers, considered frontrunners for Sasaki, reportedly have at least a few million dollars available without breaching existing deals. However, Sasaki’s ultimate decision may not hinge solely on financial offers. His team in Japan also receives a posting fee, complicating the financial dynamics further.

“There’s a chance Sasaki values other factors over the money,” one executive noted. “Endorsements and external earnings could make the difference between $2.5 million and $5 million negligible for him. Still, his agent and Japanese team will likely aim for the maximum bonus pool.”

This has left teams recalibrating commitments and budgets. While some argue this transparency reflects fairness, others highlight the disruption it causes for prospects with existing verbal agreements. Breaking these deals this late in the process often leaves players scrambling for reduced offers elsewhere.

Clubs with remaining bonus funds are closely monitoring Sasaki’s situation. Trades for international pool money—allowed in $250,000 increments starting Jan. 15—have also become a focal point.

“We’re waiting for calls,” another executive said. “We’re open to trading international money, but we expect meaningful returns for it—especially if it’s for Sasaki.”