Did Trump Drain Democrats’ Energy? These Races Will Be the First Test.

As the nation, still reeling from a two-year presidential campaign, begins to recover, candidates in a corner of Northern Virginia are preparing for two special elections that could offer a glimpse into the level of partisan enthusiasm in the era of Trump 2.0.

These elections, set for early next year in Loudoun County, will fill vacancies in Virginia’s State Senate and House of Delegates. Not only will they determine which party controls these narrowly divided chambers, but they will also be the first major elections since President-elect Donald J. Trump secured a return to office.

Eight years ago, Trump’s unexpected victory sparked a surge of Democratic energy, leading to a flood of donations and a strong push to vote, even in traditionally Republican districts, resulting in several special-election wins for the Democrats.

However, since Trump’s defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris, Democrats have shifted their focus to protecting their political ground at the state level, rather than engaging in high-profile national protests. Donations to liberal advocacy groups have fallen short of the resistance-driven enthusiasm that followed Trump’s first victory, and MSNBC ratings have dropped, especially with hosts meeting with the president-elect.https://wordpress.com/

The state legislative seats in Loudoun County were vacated when Democratic state senator Suhas Subramanyam resigned after winning a U.S. House seat on November 5, and Kannan Srinivasan, a Democratic member of the House of Delegates, stepped down on November 16 after securing the Democratic nomination to replace Subramanyam. JJ Singh, a first-time candidate, won the Democratic nomination on November 23, making it the third time in November that voters in the district were asked to head to the polls.

The districts are strongly Democratic—Terry McAuliffe won over 60 percent of the vote in both during the 2021 gubernatorial race. Nevertheless, party officials fear that a dip in voter enthusiasm could allow Republicans to claim these key seats. The GOP has nominated Tumay Harding for the State Senate and Ram Venkatachalam for the State House, with both focusing on education issues and advocating for an end to Democratic control of the legislature.

Special elections generally see low voter turnout, attracting only the most motivated voters, and this is expected to be even more pronounced in the January 7 elections, which will include early voting through December and New Year’s holidays.

Currently, Democrats hold a 20-19 majority in the Virginia Senate and a 50-49 lead in the House of Delegates. If Republicans win, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears would have the tiebreaking vote in the State Senate, and the House would likely see a power-sharing arrangement. The stakes are high for Virginia Democrats, who are working to pass constitutional amendments protecting abortion rights, same-sex marriage, and the restoration of voting rights for felons.

Dan Helmer, campaign chair for the Virginia House Democratic caucus, stated that the party would allocate “a substantial six-figure budget” for both races—significantly higher than typical for deeply Democratic districts. “We saw how Loudoun shifted right,” Helmer noted, referencing the presidential election. “We know people are tired, and we know it will take inspirational candidates like JJ Singh and Kannan Srinivasan to hold these seats.”

Singh, 44, a former Obama administration official and aide to Delaware Senator Chris Coons, was named one of Washington’s “50 Most Beautiful People” in 2014 by The Hill. If he wins, he could become the first Sikh in the U.S. to wear a turban and be elected to a state legislature. The districts have large Asian American populations—43 percent in the House district and 30 percent in the Senate district. Singh is campaigning on issues such as lowering highway tolls and tuition at Virginia’s public universities, as well as supporting standard Democratic priorities like abortion rights and gun violence measures.

In a recent interview, Singh shared his sense of the district’s frustration with the ongoing Trump transition: “People are cycling through the various steps to get to acceptance. There’s anger, sadness, and some numbness. Some have accepted that Trump is going to be president, and we want Washington to do good things. But if they can’t, we have to take matters into our own hands in Richmond.”

Virginia Republicans have made competing in Loudoun County a key element of their strategy. Trump improved his performance in the county in 2020, reducing his margin of defeat by eight points. When Governor Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 election, he still lost the county by 11 points.

John Whitbeck, a Loudoun County conservative operative and former chairman of the Virginia Republican Party, noted that GOP officials had yet to decide whether to invest heavily in their candidates, who were chosen at party conventions last month. Whitbeck explained that during special elections, candidates will likely focus solely on motivating their party’s base, rather than courting swing voters. “There’s no time to communicate with crossover voters,” he said. “If the Republican candidate is close, or even wins, it could signal a rising enthusiasm on the Republican side.”