Former President Donald J. Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, frequently attribute the U.S. housing affordability crisis to the recent increase in immigration. They propose mass deportations of undocumented workers as part of their solution to the issue.

However, most economists disagree that immigrants have played a significant role in the recent surge in housing prices. Rents and home prices began to rise in 2020 and 2021, before the uptick in immigration that started in 2022 and 2023.

While immigrants might have contributed to sustained housing demand in certain markets, studies suggest they represent a minor factor overall. Even the economist whose work Mr. Vance cited stated in an interview that immigration’s recent impact on housing costs has been minimal.

In fact, many economists and housing experts believe that Trump’s proposed solution—large-scale deportations—could worsen the housing crisis. Immigrants are not only part of the demand side of housing but are also crucial to its supply. Foreign-born workers make up about a quarter of the construction workforce, particularly in specialized trades like drywall installation, roofing, and plastering.

In several rapidly growing housing markets, particularly in the South, the influx of immigrants has helped builders meet the demand for both skilled and unskilled labor, according to industry groups and job market data.

“In the long run, immigrants are the solution to the housing crisis,” said Exequiel Hernandez, a Wharton School professor who studies immigration. “Without immigrants, there’s no way to expand the housing supply.”

More than just demand

Consider the case of Adriany Colina, a 27-year-old mother of three from Venezuela. Since arriving in the U.S. last October, she has been living in shelters, which means she hasn’t contributed much to the housing market in Denver, where she now resides.

Ms. Colina is working on securing an apartment but faces challenges due to her lack of a Social Security number, a bank account, or pay stubs. On the other hand, she contributes to the local housing supply by working in construction, having learned the trade while cleaning carpets at construction sites. She now spends a few days each week in construction and installs carpets independently on other days.

While Ms. Colina’s story is unique, it reflects broader trends. Although immigration has surged in recent years—2.6 million people entered the U.S. in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023, compared to an annual average of 900,000 before 2020—relatively few newcomers are buying homes. About 90% of households led by recent immigrants rent, according to government data. Additionally, many recent immigrants live in shelters or overcrowded conditions, limiting their impact on housing demand.

Yoli Casas, executive director at ViVe Wellness, a nonprofit in Denver, said many landlords prefer more established tenants and often require immigrants to provide additional documentation, such as proof of employment and larger security deposits. In her view, competition from immigrants “wouldn’t affect local residents who have their paperwork in order,” she said.

Limited evidence immigrants are driving up housing costs

Although data on the housing impact of recent immigrants is limited, little suggests that they are a major factor behind rising housing costs.

During a recent vice-presidential debate, Mr. Vance claimed that immigrants are driving up housing costs, citing three sources on social media. One was a speech by a Federal Reserve governor that mentioned immigrants “could” be adding pressure to the housing market, but offered no supporting research. Another source was unrelated to housing shortages. The final source was a study showing that immigration correlates with rent increases from 2000 to 2012. However, the study’s author, Susan Pozo, an economics professor at Western Michigan University, expressed discomfort with how her findings were used.

Dr. Pozo’s research did find that rents tended to rise in areas with increasing immigrant populations, but this does not mean immigrants were the cause. It’s possible that immigrants were attracted to areas with booming economies, where rents were already increasing.

Even if immigration contributed to rising prices, the effect would be small. Dr. Pozo estimated that immigration accounted for only about one percentage point of the 58% increase in housing prices over the last decade.

Other factors driving housing costs

None of this downplays the affordability crisis. Housing prices have soared since the pandemic, with rents increasing by 25%. However, several factors have fueled these trends, including population shifts during the pandemic, a lack of starter homes due to the slowdown in building after the 2008 financial crisis, and widespread obstacles to building cheaper homes.

In cities like New York, for example, the rise in rents has been linked to a failure to build more housing in lower-density areas, rather than an influx of immigrants—something the city has historically absorbed without issue.

“When we talk about immigration, today’s numbers aren’t out of line with historical trends,” said Howard Slatkin, executive director of New York’s Citizens Housing and Planning Council. “What’s different is that we stopped building housing decades ago, and we’ve exhausted the slack that existed.”

Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt maintained the former president’s stance, stating, “President Trump will deport Kamala’s illegal immigrants and reduce housing costs for American citizens by lowering inflation and cutting red tape for developers.”

But some economists argue that Trump’s deportation plans could harm housing supply.

Deportation could worsen shortages

Although details of Trump’s mass deportation plans remain unclear, Goldman Sachs economists estimate that a Trump administration could deport anywhere from 300,000 to 2.1 million people in 2025, with the higher estimate based on deportation trends from the 1950s Eisenhower administration, which Trump has praised.

In markets where undocumented immigrants make up part of the construction workforce, deportations could lead to fewer homes being built, potentially driving prices higher. From 2008 to 2013, the federal Secure Communities program deported over 300,000 undocumented immigrants, which reduced construction labor and slowed homebuilding in affected areas, pushing prices up.

If similar mass deportations were enacted today, “I’d absolutely expect housing supply to fall and prices to rise,” said Troup Howard, an economist at the University of Utah.

Other consequences

Not all of the U.S. is experiencing the same housing struggles. While many areas face shortages, some regions with aging or declining populations see immigration as part of the solution.

Because many immigrants are low-income and highly mobile, they have historically moved to cheaper areas, helping to revitalize struggling towns or suburbs. Some cities actively recruit immigrants to reverse population declines. In St. Louis, for instance, the International Institute is working to attract recent legal immigrants and finding landlords willing to renovate vacant buildings to house them.

Moji Sidiqi, outreach director for Afghan refugees at the International Institute, said, “This is exactly what we need as a city—people to fill up these homes and neighborhoods.”actly what we need,” said Moji Sidiqi, the International Institute’s outreach director for Afghan refugees, adding, “St. Louis needs people to come here to fill up these homes, fill up these neighborhoods.”